Deflation: The Fed Cannot Stop It

This article shows how all sorts of assets, commodities, currencies have been deflating in terms of gold.  The author suggests we’re in a global deflationary spiral, despite central banks’ (in the EU, US and Japan) efforts to prevent this.  The author’s analysis reinforces the golden rule of economics – there’s no such thing as a free lunch…. even monetary policy cannot circumvent this rule.  A great read.

-Valentine

Helicopter Ben on Credit Crunch

This is pretty funny.

-Billy

John Hathaway – Gold & US Today vs 1980 Mania

When it comes to bull and bear market cycles, the characteristics of incipient and terminal stages are identifiable to contrarian scrutiny based on sentiment, sponsorship, participation and valuation.  The middle innings, however, tend to be muddled affairs.  Sentiment vacillates but never seems decisive.  Sponsorship is broader but not unanimous.  Ownership, the acid test in our opinion, is more widespread but not universal.  That seems to be the case for gold right now.

Enjoy,

Dick Pepperfield

Opinion on Gold & Silver

Here’s another opinion piece on the recent volatility in the gold and silver markets and what we could expect in these markets in the near future.

-Valentine

Financial Times interview with Russell Napier —

Long View: Historian sees S&P fall to 400

Napier talks about how most portfolios are constructed within the current low to negative interest rate environment and how he envisions an adjustment upwards in real interest rates which he calls the “Great Reset”.

Napier also says that the lows in 2009 were not the real lows.  Markets didn’t capitulate and valuations never reached the lows in previous market crashes.

Enjoy,

DP

Return of the Bond Vigilante

A great interview with Bill Gross.  The topic is the destiny of US treasury rates, credit standing, and interesting trades he’s made for the largest bond fund in the world.  Enjoy.

-Valentine

Forbes Predicts US Gold Standard Within 5 Years

This prediction by Steve Forbes has kicked up discussion in the media.

-Valentine

Fed Lifts Inflation, Lowers GDP Growth Expectations

This announcement just out from the Fed.  This is not a good combo, as the fed nearly doubles its inflation estimate for 2011, up from its January estimate, at the same time cutting its view of GDP growth for the year.

-Valentine

Food Prices Up, Up, and Away

It is expected that food prices will reach a record high this year.  Here’s the UN’s FAO food price index site so you can track prices yourself.

-BRV

Price of Oil at All Time Low

Here’s a video blog by Peter Schiff, and according to him, the price of oil/gas is at an all-time low if you are using silver and not a fiat currency to pay for it.  Very interesting.

-Billy Ray

Dollar Falls – Lowest on Record

The Federal Reserve’s trade-weighted dollar index fell to its lowest level since the Fed has been keeping track.  So you’re becoming less wealthy vs. people in these other countries overnight.   Meanwhile, Case-Shiller Index showed US home prices down another 1.1% in February.  The biggest asset for most people in the US continues to decline in value in dollar terms, and globally, the value of the dollar continues to decline- a double whammy! Here is a chart of the median home price in terms of gold.

-Valentine

Hyperinflation Special Report

Here is an in-depth special report on hyperinflation in the US.  It’s from the same guy that brings you Shadow Stats.  It’s lengthy but filled with interesting facts and statistics.  It is worth the read so take a look over the Easter weekend.

-Valentine

S&P Downgrades Outlook on US Debt

I love the sarcasm in these articles- click here and click here.   S&P just put a negative outlook on the credit rating of US sovereign debt and said there’s a 1 in 3 chance of a downgrade in the next two years.

-Billy

Commodity Prices vs. Fed’s Treasury Buying

Check out this chart showing an overlay of the Fed’s purchases of Treasury Notes/Bonds and the CRB Commodity Index.  Looks like a pretty tight correlation to me. Enjoy.

-BRV

Gold Price: Cause and Effect

Here’s a nice interactive chart explaining why gold prices could continue to move up.  Roll your cursor over the blocks to see the explanations.

-Valentine

Walmart CEO Expecting Inflation

It is serious when Wal-Mart cannot keep prices down.  CEO Bill Simon expects significant inflation…. serious inflation in the near-term.  This article is a must read.

-Valentine

Will Asset Inflation Cap Economic Growth?

There’s a concern that the recent rise in food and energy prices will eat up any growth (which has been minimal) in wages.  That scenario may cap any economic growth.

-Valentine

The Money Supply and Inflation

It is common to hear news and analysis today about the exploding money supply and how it will cause high inflation in the future.  This article dismisses the exploding money supply idea as a myth.    This is the deflationary argument.  It will be interesting to see who is right.

-Billy Ray Valentine

Gold and Pension Funds

If you think gold is over priced, check out this article.  It might change your mind.

-Billy

Hedge Fund Titan’s View

Here’s an interview with Ray Dalio on CNBC.  He’s the founder and CIO of the world’s largest hedge fund with $8.9bn under management.  It is a great interview.

-Billy Ray

Inflation and Gold Explained

Here’s a good article on inflation and gold.  It will help you piece together the logic of it all if you haven’t been able to do so already.  Enjoy.

-Billy

Inflation is a Lie

Dr. Doom, Marc Faber claims that official inflation stats in this country are a lie.  Ask yourself, has the dollar in your pocket been able to buy more or less over the past year.

-BRV

Stagflation

Is stagflation on the horizon for the US?  It seems to be creeping up on the EU countries.  Of course the powers that be are threatening to crack down on commodity price speculation.   If scapegoating was a sport, they’d be pros.  If you want to crackdown, crack down on your loose fiscal policies including recent bailouts, and debt monetization.

-BRV

Somebody’s Buyin…

Silver.  It’s flying off the shelves.

-Billy Ray

China and Inflation

This is a very good article on China’s economy and inflation as it pertains to both the US and China.  A very interesting take-away from the article is Hu Xingdou’s estimate of true inflation in China being closer to 10% annually.  If true, this figure implies that China’s real GDP growth rate was close to 0% in 2010.

-Valentine

“Not Owning Gold is Crazy”

Check out this video on the dollar vs. gold.  It is a good commentary on the price of gold.

-Billy

Schiff on Inflation on China

This relates to my prior two posts.  Enjoy.

More on Inflation in China

The Chinese are worried about inflation, more so than any other time in history.  Also, see a former post on this matter.

-Bill

China is Heating Up

Inflation seems to becoming more of a concern in China.  It should be, since we’re exporting inflation to the country.  We’re exchanging our freshly printed money for their cheap goods and it’s happening (at least partially) because of the currency peg.

-BRV

Stewart on QE2

Awesome (click here).

-Billy